Santos Laguna 1-0 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Sep 2025

📅25/09/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
45%
Away Win
45%
+0.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.7pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.0pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.28/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/1.71
+4% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
287 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.7 Crosses 11.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos Laguna
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tijuana
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.39 xG 1.93
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
339 Passes 323
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2025 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-4 HT 0-2 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
19.08.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 3-1 HT 2-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
16.03.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 2-2 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
05.10.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
13.03.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-2 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
26.08.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 0-2 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos Laguna
1-0
AWAY Tijuana
1.46 xG 2.06
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
225 Passes 278
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Santos Laguna vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos Laguna squeezed past Tijuana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Tijuana at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos Laguna had 47% of the ball to Tijuana's 53%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.46 to 2.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Tijuana.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos Laguna had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Santos Laguna and 2.00 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Tijuana?

Santos Laguna 1-0 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 25/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos Laguna vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Santos Laguna 28%, draw 27%, Tijuana 45%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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