Dundee United 3-1 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.75
6+ Goals
9%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.22
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.04
X/2
7%
6.32
X/X
9%
4.66
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
15%
4.54
2/X
8%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundee United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.42/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.25
-12% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
254 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 71%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
22.4 Crosses 24.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundee United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY St. Mirren
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.25 xG 1.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
219 Passes 256
69% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 34
20 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2025 Dundee United Dundee United 0-2 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
11.01.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-0 Dundee United Dundee United İKP
30.11.2024 Dundee United Dundee United 2-0 HT 0-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
05.10.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-0 Dundee United Dundee United İKP
18.08.2024 Dundee United Dundee United 1-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKLK
18.03.2023 Dundee United Dundee United 1-1 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundee United
3-1
AWAY St. Mirren
2.21 xG 2.28
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 12
185 Passes 225
65% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dundee United vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundee United beat St. Mirren 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Dundee United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Dundee United had 45% of the ball to St. Mirren's 55%, shots finished 13-23, expected goals 2.21 to 2.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundee United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dundee United and 0.50 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Dundee United vs St. Mirren?

Dundee United 3-1 St. Mirren in the Scotland - Premiership on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundee United vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundee United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Dundee United 46%, draw 26%, St. Mirren 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dundee United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dundee United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKP More Scotland - Premiership
25 Oct 2025
17:00 Livingston vs Motherwell Analysis →
17:00 Falkirk vs Dundee FC Analysis →