Rijeka 4-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
2.91
2-3 Goals
43%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 27% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
60%
-7.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.9pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
1.59/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.63
+25% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.5 Crosses 17.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.61 xG 0.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
257 Passes 305
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.10.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
04.08.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 4-0 HT 2-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
28.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 HT 2-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
03.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIRK
17.02.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 4-0 HT 2-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
03.11.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
4-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.19 xG 0.99
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
221 Passes 286
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka swept aside Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rijeka had 46% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 54%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.19 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rijeka and 1.00 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Rijeka 4-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 52%, draw 25%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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