HNK Gorica 1-2 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 26 Jan 2026

📅26/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
20.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+4.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -13%
1.23/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.21
+15% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
16.2 Crosses 14.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
0W-4D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.95 xG 1.90
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
331 Passes 370
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-3 HT 0-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
04.08.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
04.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.01.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
14.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
20.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-2
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.79 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
376 Passes 343
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin edged past HNK Gorica 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was HNK Gorica at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 52% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 48%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.79 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.33 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

HNK Gorica 1-2 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 26/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 42%, draw 26%, NK Varazdin 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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