HNK Gorica 1-3 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.6
Over 2.5
49%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.43
2-3 Goals
44%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.41
6+ Goals
7%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.0pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+4.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-7.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.05/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/0.98
+7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
17.1 Crosses 15.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
0W-5D-1L
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.60 xG 1.52
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
318 Passes 385
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
04.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.01.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
14.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
20.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
03.08.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-3
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.97 xG 3.14
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
456 Passes 273
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin saw off HNK Gorica 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; NK Varazdin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 59% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 41%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.97 to 3.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for HNK Gorica and 0.83 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

HNK Gorica 1-3 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated an NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 37%, draw 26%, NK Varazdin 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NK Varazdin) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✗ Under 2.5
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