Santa Fe 1-2 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 26 Feb 2026

📅26/02/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
47%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.71
Over
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
43%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
31%
-1.2pp
23%
Draw
29%
-5.8pp
47%
Away Win
40%
+6.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 43%
-10% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
0.96/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.09
-12% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
246 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.4 Crosses 13.9
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Fe
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.39 xG 1.46
42% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
233 Passes 370
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.07.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
13.06.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
09.06.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
13.02.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-2 HT 2-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
09.12.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-3 HT 0-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
21.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 5-0 HT 3-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Fe
1-2
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.28 xG 1.60
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
151 Passes 266
67% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional edged past Santa Fe 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Santa Fe had 40% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 60%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.28 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santa Fe and 2.33 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional?

Santa Fe 1-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 26/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Santa Fe 30%, draw 23%, Atletico Nacional 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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