Atletico Nacional 1-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.4pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+7.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.8pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +29%
1.56/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.37
+18% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -1%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
395 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 74%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
18.5 Crosses 12.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Santa Fe
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 1.32
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
363 Passes 210
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.06.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
09.06.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
13.02.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-2 HT 2-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
09.12.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-3 HT 0-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
21.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 5-0 HT 3-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
05.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-1
AWAY Santa Fe
1.45 xG 1.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
383 Passes 314
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Atletico Nacional carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 54% of the ball to Santa Fe's 46%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.45 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 55%, draw 24%, Santa Fe 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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