Chateauroux 1-4 Epinal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 26 Apr 2024

Chateauroux
1-4 HT 1-3
Epinal
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - National League 1 – 2023/2024

Chateauroux vs Epinal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.89
6+ Goals
12%
17.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.89 — our 24% vs market 20.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.15
X/1
15%
3.7
X/2
6%
10.5
X/X
8%
4.86
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
14%
8.83
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
17.15
Value flag · 2/X at 17.15 — our 9% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-10.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chateauroux v Epinal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chateauroux EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Epinal EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.89/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.38
+2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
429 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Chateauroux vs Epinal Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chateauroux
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Epinal
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
The Meetings
01.12.2023 Epinal Epinal 4-1 HT 2-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
14.08.2015 Chateauroux Chateauroux 1-1 HT 0-1 Epinal Epinal FR3
POST-MATCH Chateauroux vs Epinal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Epinal cruised past Chateauroux 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Chateauroux at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Epinal led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chateauroux and 2.50 for Epinal.

What was the final score of Chateauroux vs Epinal?

Chateauroux 1-4 Epinal in the France - National League 1 on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chateauroux vs Epinal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chateauroux win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Chateauroux 47%, draw 27%, Epinal 26%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chateauroux) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chateauroux) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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