Nancy 3-6 Le Mans FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.21
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.1
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
11%
4.93
X/2
9%
6.65
X/X
11%
4.35
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
19%
4.74
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nancy EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +14%
1.36/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.23
+5% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
303 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nancy
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Le Mans FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.40 xG 0.89
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
278 Passes 358
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-3 HT 1-0 Nancy Nancy FR3
17.02.2023 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Nancy Nancy FR3
09.09.2022 Nancy Nancy 2-0 HT 1-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
31.01.2020 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Nancy Nancy FR2
16.08.2019 Nancy Nancy 2-1 HT 1-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR2
02.02.2011 Nancy Nancy 1-2 HT 1-1 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nancy
3-6
AWAY Le Mans FC
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nancy vs Le Mans FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Mans FC swept aside Nancy 6-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Le Mans FC made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Nancy had 52% of the ball to Le Mans FC's 48%, shots finished 15-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nancy had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nancy and 0.83 for Le Mans FC.

What was the final score of Nancy vs Le Mans FC?

Nancy 3-6 Le Mans FC in the France - National League 1 on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nancy vs Le Mans FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nancy win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nancy 39%, draw 27%, Le Mans FC 34%. The final score 3-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Nancy), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nancy) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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