Villefranche 0-1 Avranches — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 29% vs market 24.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.13
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
15%
3.9
X/2
13%
10.1
X/X
10%
5.03
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
11%
7.98
2/X
7%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-11.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
19%
+10.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.5pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villefranche EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Avranches EU Bookmakers 22%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -18%
1.64/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.61
-3% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villefranche
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Avranches
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.03.2024 Avranches Avranches 1-3 HT 1-2 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
01.12.2023 Avranches Avranches 0-2 HT 0-0 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
10.02.2023 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 1-1 Avranches Avranches FR3
02.09.2022 Avranches Avranches 2-1 HT 0-1 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
08.04.2022 Avranches Avranches 1-1 HT 0-1 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
05.11.2021 Villefranche Villefranche 3-0 HT 2-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villefranche
0-1
AWAY Avranches
59% Ball Possession 41%
6 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Villefranche vs Avranches
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avranches squeezed past Villefranche 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Villefranche at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Villefranche had 59% of the ball to Avranches's 41%, shots finished 6-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villefranche had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Villefranche and 0.83 for Avranches.

What was the final score of Villefranche vs Avranches?

Villefranche 0-1 Avranches in the France - National League 1 on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villefranche vs Avranches?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villefranche win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Villefranche 45%, draw 25%, Avranches 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Villefranche), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Villefranche) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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