Rochdale 5-1 Hartlepool United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 30% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.21
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.0
X/1
17%
4.16
X/2
11%
9.59
X/X
17%
5.18
2/1
7%
23.75
2/2
9%
7.87
2/X
7%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-10.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.7pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rochdale EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -3%
2.38/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/2.28
+38% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / -32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
264 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rochdale
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hartlepool United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 0.86
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
212 Passes 189
69% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2024 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 0-3 HT 0-1 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
01.04.2024 Rochdale Rochdale 1-1 HT 0-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
28.10.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-3 HT 1-3 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
21.01.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-0 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
26.12.2022 Rochdale Rochdale 1-2 HT 0-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
18.04.2022 Rochdale Rochdale 2-1 HT 0-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rochdale
5-1
AWAY Hartlepool United
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
3 Passes 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Rochdale vs Hartlepool United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rochdale cruised past Hartlepool United 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rochdale as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rochdale had 58% of the ball to Hartlepool United's 42%, shots finished 11-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rochdale had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rochdale and 1.33 for Hartlepool United.

What was the final score of Rochdale vs Hartlepool United?

Rochdale 5-1 Hartlepool United in the England - National League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rochdale vs Hartlepool United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rochdale win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rochdale 45%, draw 29%, Hartlepool United 26%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rochdale) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rochdale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İBSL More England - National League
26 Apr 2025
14:30 Woking vs Eastleigh Analysis →
17:00 Tamworth vs AFC Fylde Analysis →
17:00 Halifax Town vs Braintree Town Analysis →
17:00 Forest Green Rovers vs Oldham Athletic Analysis →
17:00 Dagenham & Redbridge vs Altrincham Analysis →
17:00 Yeovil vs Sutton United Analysis →