Cardiff MU 1-0 Bala Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.82
Over 2.5
54%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.51
6+ Goals
12%
14.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.51 — our 26% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.2pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
51%
-5.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
49%
+5.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.3pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Bala Town EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.46/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.67
-14% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bala Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2025 Bala Town Bala Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
08.02.2025 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-1 HT 1-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
09.11.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 3-3 HT 1-1 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
07.09.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
16.03.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-1 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
03.02.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Bala Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU squeezed past Bala Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cardiff MU as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff MU had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cardiff MU and 1.00 for Bala Town.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Bala Town?

Cardiff MU 1-0 Bala Town in the Wales - Premier League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Bala Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff MU win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 43%, draw 29%, Bala Town 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cardiff MU) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cardiff MU) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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