Ujpest 1-1 Diosgyor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.97
Over
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.48
2-3
42%
1.79
4-5
21%
3.19
6+
9%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.48 — our 28% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ujpest EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Diosgyor EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.70/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.30
-6% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
18.6 Crosses 17.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ujpest
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Diosgyor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.42 xG 1.39
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
326 Passes 336
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Diosgyor Diosgyor 1-1 HT 0-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
21.09.2024 Ujpest Ujpest 0-0 HT 0-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
04.05.2024 Ujpest Ujpest 7-0 HT 4-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
11.02.2024 Diosgyor Diosgyor 1-2 HT 0-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
07.10.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 2-0 HT 0-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
29.04.2021 Diosgyor Diosgyor 0-0 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ujpest
1-1
AWAY Diosgyor
1.27 xG 1.16
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
348 Passes 217
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 18
29 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ujpest vs Diosgyor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ujpest and Diosgyor shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Ujpest at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ujpest had 61% of the ball to Diosgyor's 39%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.27 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ujpest had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ujpest and 0.33 for Diosgyor.

What was the final score of Ujpest vs Diosgyor?

Ujpest 1-1 Diosgyor in the Hungary - NB I on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ujpest vs Diosgyor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ujpest win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ujpest 46%, draw 26%, Diosgyor 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ujpest), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ujpest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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