Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Jun 2024

📅26/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
13%
8.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.75
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.35
X/1
22%
3.69
X/2
6%
13.6
X/X
12%
6.44
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.45
2/2
8%
10.4
2/X
7%
18.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-10.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.7pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.9pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 18%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +19%
1.74/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.44
+2% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
404 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
25.9 Crosses 12.1
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 1.03
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
468 Passes 259
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 20
29 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
01.07.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-0 HT 2-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
26.02.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-2 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.09.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
12.04.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
25.02.2017 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.60 xG 0.89
37% Ball Possession 63%
23 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 1
260 Passes 510
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 14
39 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Albirex Niigata shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 37% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 63%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 1.60 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.00 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Albirex Niigata?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 26/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54%, draw 24%, Albirex Niigata 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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