New England Revolution 1-3 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
24%
2.69
6+ Goals
10%
6.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.99 — our 27% vs market 15.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.1pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.6pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.7pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +13%
1.57/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.56
-3% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
23.1 Crosses 15.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New England Revolution
3W-1D-2L
AWAY CF Montreal
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.31 xG 0.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
412 Passes 397
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2025 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-3 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
19.09.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-2 HT 2-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
25.08.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-5 HT 0-2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
27.08.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-0 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
09.04.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 4-0 HT 2-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
18.09.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-1 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
1-3
AWAY CF Montreal
1.37 xG 1.19
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
474 Passes 263
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 33
24 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Montreal beat New England Revolution 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was New England Revolution at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, New England Revolution had 62% of the ball to CF Montreal's 38%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.37 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for New England Revolution and 0.67 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs CF Montreal?

New England Revolution 1-3 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a New England Revolution win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 44%, draw 28%, CF Montreal 28%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (New England Revolution) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New England Revolution) ✓ Over 2.5
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