Rodez 1-2 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 26 Sep 2025

Rodez
1-2 HT 1-1
Pau
📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.26
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.39
6+ Goals
10%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 33% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.45
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
5%
12.45
X/1
8%
5.47
X/2
9%
6.16
X/X
13%
4.55
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
17%
4.15
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+3.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rodez EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -11%
1.42/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.75
+1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -36%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 81%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
26.0 Crosses 20.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rodez
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pau
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.97 xG 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
292 Passes 342
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.02.2025 Pau Pau 0-5 HT 0-2 Rodez Rodez FR2
06.12.2024 Rodez Rodez 1-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
03.08.2024 Pau Pau 4-1 HT 1-0 Rodez Rodez HAZ
13.01.2024 Rodez Rodez 2-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
02.09.2023 Pau Pau 2-2 HT 2-0 Rodez Rodez FR2
26.05.2023 Rodez Rodez 2-3 HT 1-3 Pau Pau FR2
POST-MATCH Rodez vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau nicked a narrow win over Rodez 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rodez at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rodez had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rodez and 1.67 for Pau.

What was the final score of Rodez vs Pau?

Rodez 1-2 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rodez vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rodez win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rodez 42%, draw 27%, Pau 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rodez) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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