Den Bosch 2-3 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.09
Draw
20%
3.64
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.51
Over 2.5
60%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.41
No
41%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.28
2-3 Goals
36%
1.97
4-5 Goals
28%
2.52
6+ Goals
14%
5.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.96
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
14%
5.52
X/2
11%
6.76
X/X
7%
6.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.1
2/2
14%
4.03
2/X
7%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
44%
+6.3pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.9pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-2.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
67%
-8.0pp
41%
BTTS No
33%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +2%
1.64/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.34
+16% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
17.4 Crosses 11.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Den Bosch
2W-3D-1L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.47 xG 0.61
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
298 Passes 386
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.04.2025 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
16.08.2024 Den Bosch Den Bosch 6-0 HT 3-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
16.02.2024 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
11.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
17.02.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 2-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
14.10.2022 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Den Bosch
2-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.26 xG 1.51
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
284 Passes 438
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Den Bosch vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II edged past Den Bosch 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Den Bosch at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Den Bosch had 43% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 57%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 1.26 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Den Bosch had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Den Bosch and 0.50 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Den Bosch vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Den Bosch 2-3 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Den Bosch vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Den Bosch win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Den Bosch 50%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar II 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Den Bosch) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Den Bosch) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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