Ajax II 2-4 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.11
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
25.0
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
15%
5.48
X/2
15%
6.37
X/X
9%
5.87
2/1
6%
22.1
2/2
10%
3.9
2/X
4%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.0pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.9pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.3pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / -1%
1.44/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.26
-2% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
11.8 Crosses 21.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.05 xG 1.36
58% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
438 Passes 289
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2025 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
01.11.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 0-1 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
03.05.2024 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
06.10.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 3-0 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
28.04.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
24.10.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
2-4
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.83 xG 1.88
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 5
400 Passes 260
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
35 Box Touches 31
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo got the better of Ajax II 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax II at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ajax II had 59% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 41%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.83 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ajax II and 0.83 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs VVV-Venlo?

Ajax II 2-4 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 46%, draw 21%, VVV-Venlo 33%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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