MVV Maastricht 1-0 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.5
No
40%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.29
2-3 Goals
35%
1.85
4-5 Goals
29%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
7.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.45
1/2
7%
22.1
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
10%
6.91
X/2
12%
5.23
X/X
9%
5.52
2/1
12%
28.0
2/2
20%
2.9
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+5.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
38%
Away Win
44%
-5.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
-2.0pp
40%
BTTS No
38%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +21%
1.26/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.20
+0% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
18.2 Crosses 18.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Emmen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.90 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
348 Passes 398
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.03.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-2 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
04.10.2024 Emmen Emmen 1-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
12.04.2024 Emmen Emmen 1-3 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
06.11.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
17.12.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
10.09.2021 Emmen Emmen 7-1 HT 3-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-0
AWAY Emmen
1.47 xG 0.43
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 4
338 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 17
33 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht nicked a narrow win over Emmen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day MVV Maastricht made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 50% of the ball to Emmen's 50%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.47 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for MVV Maastricht and 2.17 for Emmen.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Emmen?

MVV Maastricht 1-0 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 38%, draw 24%, Emmen 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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