Helmond Sport 1-0 FC Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.0
Over 2.5
57%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.73
No
39%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.9
X/1
19%
4.34
X/2
10%
8.76
X/X
8%
5.28
2/1
8%
22.1
2/2
11%
6.73
2/X
7%
15.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
46%
-3.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
54%
+3.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
54%
+7.1pp
39%
BTTS No
46%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +27%
1.14/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.19
-12% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +33%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 75%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
17.5 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Eindhoven
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.25 xG 0.89
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 Passes 324
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.03.2025 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 2-2 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
22.11.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-4 HT 0-2 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
03.05.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
20.10.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-2 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
12.05.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
19.08.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
1-0
AWAY FC Eindhoven
1.08 xG 1.22
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 6
255 Passes 362
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 30
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport edged past FC Eindhoven 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Helmond Sport as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 43% of the ball to FC Eindhoven's 57%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 1.08 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.33 for FC Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?

Helmond Sport 1-0 FC Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 45%, draw 25%, FC Eindhoven 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helmond Sport) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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