Guangzhou Evergrande 3-1 Yanbian Longding — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒09:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
20%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.88
2-3 Goals
45%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 24% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-12.7pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.3pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Yanbian Longding EU Bookmakers 14%
-41% / -41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.01/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.19
-64% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +5%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 159 · 62%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
26.0 Crosses 13.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Yanbian Longding
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 0.95
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
301 Passes 193
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.06.2024 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding 2-2 HT 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
22.10.2023 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding 1-0 HT 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
08.07.2023 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande 2-0 HT 1-0 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
3-1
AWAY Yanbian Longding
1.96 xG 0.24
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
385 Passes 158
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 6
24 Crosses 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guangzhou Evergrande vs Yanbian Longding
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guangzhou Evergrande got the better of Yanbian Longding 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Guangzhou Evergrande as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guangzhou Evergrande had 67% of the ball to Yanbian Longding's 33%, shots finished 21-3, expected goals 1.96 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Guangzhou Evergrande and 1.00 for Yanbian Longding.

What was the final score of Guangzhou Evergrande vs Yanbian Longding?

Guangzhou Evergrande 3-1 Yanbian Longding in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangzhou Evergrande vs Yanbian Longding?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangzhou Evergrande win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Guangzhou Evergrande 58%, draw 22%, Yanbian Longding 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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