Weymouth 1-1 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+5.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.2pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Weymouth EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 49%
-14% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.10/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.40
-15% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Weymouth
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Farnborough
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
11.11.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 1-1 HT 0-1 Weymouth Weymouth İCON
21.02.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 3-1 HT 2-0 Weymouth Weymouth İCON
25.10.2022 Weymouth Weymouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
POST-MATCH Weymouth vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weymouth and Farnborough shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Farnborough at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Farnborough led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Weymouth and 1.67 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Weymouth vs Farnborough?

Weymouth 1-1 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Weymouth vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Weymouth 33%, draw 24%, Farnborough 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Farnborough), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Farnborough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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