Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Oct 2025

Arsenal
1-0 HT 1-0
Crystal Palace
📅26/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.42
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.02
6+ Goals
10%
9.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.68
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
8%
17.95
X/1 EV+ ✗
33%
3.86
X/2
7%
14.75
X/X
6%
6.54
2/1
8%
22.25
2/2
6%
12.6
2/X
6%
20.8
Value flag · X/1 at 3.86 — our 33% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
67%
-3.0pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.4pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+3.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Crystal Palace — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 16%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.88/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.89
+12% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -3%
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
504 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 75%
37.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.3 Crosses 12.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Crystal Palace
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.13 xG 0.99
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
506 Passes 278
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.04.2025 Arsenal Arsenal 2-2 HT 2-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
21.12.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-5 HT 1-3 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
18.12.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 0-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNLK
20.01.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 5-0 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
21.08.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
19.03.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 4-1 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP

Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
1-0
AWAY Crystal Palace
0.92 xG 0.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
449 Passes 265
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal squeezed past Crystal Palace 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Arsenal had 60% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 40%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.92 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Arsenal and 1.00 for Crystal Palace.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace in the England - Premier League on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 64%, draw 20%, Crystal Palace 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5
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İNP More England - Premier League
26 Oct 2025
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