Sukhothai 3-1 BG Pathum United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.61
No
56%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+2.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.0pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+12.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-12.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.7pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sukhothai EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 48%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.06/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.10
+24% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -16%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
254 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
15.8 Crosses 18.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sukhothai
1W-1D-2L
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
1.35 xG 1.79
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
244 Passes 472
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.04.2025 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 4-4 HT 4-1 Sukhothai Sukhothai TAY
10.08.2024 Sukhothai Sukhothai 1-3 HT 1-2 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
09.03.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 7-1 HT 4-0 Sukhothai Sukhothai TAY
09.11.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0-1 HT 0-0 Sukhothai Sukhothai TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sukhothai
3-1
AWAY BG Pathum United
2.15 xG 1.78
30% Ball Possession 70%
15 Total Shots 23
9 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 8
165 Passes 445
78% Pass Accuracy 91%
14 Box Touches 24
9 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sukhothai vs BG Pathum United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sukhothai beat BG Pathum United 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was BG Pathum United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sukhothai had 30% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 70%, shots finished 15-23, expected goals 2.15 to 1.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Sukhothai and 3.50 for BG Pathum United.

What was the final score of Sukhothai vs BG Pathum United?

Sukhothai 3-1 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sukhothai vs BG Pathum United?

Before kick-off our model rated an BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sukhothai 34%, draw 25%, BG Pathum United 41%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TAY More Thailand - 1st Division
26 Oct 2025
14:00 Buriram United vs Rayong FC Analysis →
14:30 Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior Analysis →
15:00 Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi Analysis →