Sukhothai vs BG Pathum United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sukhothai v BG Pathum United — Team-Based Signals
Sukhothai vs BG Pathum United Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Sukhothai
TAY
Sukhothai 3-1 BG Pathum United — Actual Match Statistics
Sukhothai beat BG Pathum United 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was BG Pathum United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Sukhothai had 30% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 70%, shots finished 15-23, expected goals 2.15 to 1.78.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Sukhothai and 3.50 for BG Pathum United.
What was the final score of Sukhothai vs BG Pathum United?
Sukhothai 3-1 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sukhothai vs BG Pathum United?
Before kick-off our model rated an BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sukhothai 34%, draw 25%, BG Pathum United 41%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.