Sacramento Republic 0-1 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 26 Oct 2025

Sacramento Republic
0-1 HT 0-0
Miami FC
📅26/10/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2026

Sacramento Republic vs Miami FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.11
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.43
6+ Goals
12%
13.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.43 — our 24% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
61%
-1.3pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.0pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sacramento Republic v Miami FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.48/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.80
-20% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
23.8 Crosses 14.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8

Sacramento Republic vs Miami FC Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Miami FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.21 xG 0.61
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
414 Passes 377
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
15.10.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP

Sacramento Republic 0-1 Miami FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
0-1
AWAY Miami FC
1.38 xG 0.95
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 3
381 Passes 293
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Miami FC squeezed past Sacramento Republic 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Sacramento Republic carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 55% of the ball to Miami FC's 45%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.38 to 0.95 — on chances, Sacramento Republic could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sacramento Republic and 0.00 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Miami FC?

Sacramento Republic 0-1 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 60%, draw 22%, Miami FC 19%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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