Louisville City 1-0 Hartford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
17%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.13
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
14%
8.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
58%
+2.7pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
17%
Away Win
20%
-3.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.89/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.65
+14% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 73%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
22.9 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.52 xG 0.76
50% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
338 Passes 318
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2025 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
25.08.2024 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 2-1 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
08.10.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-1 HT 0-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
04.06.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-0 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
16.10.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 1-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
25.06.2022 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-2 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
1-0
AWAY Hartford Athletic
2.81 xG 0.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
23 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
15 Corners 1
264 Passes 221
72% Pass Accuracy 69%
52 Box Touches 8
47 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City nicked a narrow win over Hartford Athletic 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Louisville City had 55% of the ball to Hartford Athletic's 45%, shots finished 23-5, expected goals 2.81 to 0.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Louisville City's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Louisville City and 0.83 for Hartford Athletic.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic?

Louisville City 1-0 Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 61%, draw 23%, Hartford Athletic 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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