Modena 1-0 Südtirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
33%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.48
Over 2.5
43%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
5.75
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.73
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.85
X/1
13%
3.91
X/2
8%
7.61
X/X
14%
3.71
2/1
9%
32.0
2/2
19%
6.84
2/X
6%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-11.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.4pp
33%
Away Win
23%
+10.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
64%
-7.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
36%
+7.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Südtirol EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +10%
1.41/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.05
-1% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +40%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.0 Crosses 17.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Südtirol
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.07 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
424 Passes 296
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.09.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
19.05.2023 Modena Modena 2-1 HT 2-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
26.12.2022 Südtirol Südtirol 0-2 HT 0-1 Modena Modena İTB
14.05.2022 Südtirol Südtirol 0-2 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTC
17.03.2021 Südtirol Südtirol 2-0 HT 2-0 Modena Modena İTC
22.11.2020 Modena Modena 1-2 HT 1-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
1-0
AWAY Südtirol
0.24 xG 0.51
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
208 Passes 504
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Modena vs Südtirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Modena nicked a narrow win over Südtirol 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Modena made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Modena had 34% of the ball to Südtirol's 66%, shots finished 3-7, expected goals 0.24 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Modena had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Modena and 0.83 for Südtirol.

What was the final score of Modena vs Südtirol?

Modena 1-0 Südtirol in the Italy - Serie B on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Südtirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Modena 37%, draw 30%, Südtirol 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Modena), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Modena) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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