Ternana 0-1 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.31
6+ Goals
8%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 34% vs market 30.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.19
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
11%
5.74
X/2
17%
5.22
X/X
17%
3.98
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
9%
3.67
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.8pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.2pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.0pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
1.27/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.75
+1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
322 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
19.7 Crosses 14.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Ascoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.34 xG 1.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
288 Passes 286
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2023 Ascoli Ascoli 2-0 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
15.01.2023 Ternana Ternana 1-0 HT 1-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
14.08.2022 Ascoli Ascoli 2-1 HT 2-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
06.05.2022 Ascoli Ascoli 4-1 HT 2-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
14.01.2022 Ternana Ternana 2-4 HT 0-3 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
17.03.2018 Ascoli Ascoli 2-1 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
0-1
AWAY Ascoli
1.03 xG 1.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
265 Passes 380
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ternana vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ascoli edged past Ternana 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Ascoli made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Ternana had 43% of the ball to Ascoli's 57%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.03 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ascoli led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ternana and 2.33 for Ascoli.

What was the final score of Ternana vs Ascoli?

Ternana 0-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie B on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ternana win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ternana 38%, draw 30%, Ascoli 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ternana) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ternana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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