Glenavon FC 1-2 Carrick Rangers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.37
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.95
6+ Goals
12%
8.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.02
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
11%
6.35
X/2
12%
5.3
X/X
13%
5.25
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
15%
3.13
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.0 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
35%
Away Win
41%
-5.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.9pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Carrick Rangers EU Bookmakers 45%
+15% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.53/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.67
+10% / +102% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Glenavon FC
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Carrick Rangers
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.01.2024 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers 0-2 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
28.10.2023 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers 1-3 HT 1-2 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
16.09.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 2-1 HT 0-0 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers KİRL
22.04.2023 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers 1-3 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
28.01.2023 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers 1-1 HT 0-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
22.10.2022 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 4-2 HT 2-1 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers KİRL
POST-MATCH Glenavon FC vs Carrick Rangers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carrick Rangers edged past Glenavon FC 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Carrick Rangers found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Glenavon FC had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Glenavon FC and 1.00 for Carrick Rangers.

What was the final score of Glenavon FC vs Carrick Rangers?

Glenavon FC 1-2 Carrick Rangers in the North Ireland - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Glenavon FC vs Carrick Rangers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Glenavon FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Glenavon FC 38%, draw 27%, Carrick Rangers 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Glenavon FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Glenavon FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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