IFK Varnamo 1-3 Norrköping — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 28% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.34
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
18%
5.34
X/2
12%
6.29
X/X
13%
4.88
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
16%
4.29
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Norrköping EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +7%
1.38/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.48
-15% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
16.8 Crosses 16.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Varnamo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Norrköping
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.54 xG 1.01
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 6
436 Passes 252
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-2 HT 0-1 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇ
27.05.2024 Norrköping Norrköping 0-4 HT 0-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
08.10.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 2-1 HT 0-1 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇ
16.04.2023 Norrköping Norrköping 2-1 HT 1-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
24.10.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-1 HT 0-1 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇ
02.05.2022 Norrköping Norrköping 2-0 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Varnamo
1-3
AWAY Norrköping
1.23 xG 1.28
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 3
325 Passes 257
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 19
41 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH IFK Varnamo vs Norrköping
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norrköping saw off IFK Varnamo 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Norrköping found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, IFK Varnamo had 55% of the ball to Norrköping's 45%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.23 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Norrköping led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.33 for Norrköping.

What was the final score of IFK Varnamo vs Norrköping?

IFK Varnamo 1-3 Norrköping in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Varnamo vs Norrköping?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Varnamo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split IFK Varnamo 37%, draw 28%, Norrköping 35%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (IFK Varnamo), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (IFK Varnamo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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