Como 1-0 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Apr 2025

Como
1-0 HT 0-0
Genoa
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.8
Over
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2.97
2-3
38%
1.75
4-5
19%
3.63
6+
8%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.97 — our 35% vs market 27.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.34
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
15%
4.29
X/2
6%
9.11
X/X
17%
4.8
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
11%
7.47
2/X
6%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.0pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Como EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.69/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.20
-19% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
17.7 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Como
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Genoa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.10 xG 1.15
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
284 Passes 285
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.11.2024 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 0-1 Como Como İTA
10.04.2023 Como Como 2-2 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTB
13.11.2022 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 1-0 Como Como İTB
06.01.2004 Genoa Genoa 0-1 HT 0-0 Como Como İTB
03.02.2002 Como Como 2-1 HT 1-1 Genoa Genoa İTB
09.09.2001 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 1-1 Como Como İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Como
1-0
AWAY Genoa
1.31 xG 1.27
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
383 Passes 337
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Como vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Como squeezed past Genoa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Como as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Como had 53% of the ball to Genoa's 47%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.31 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Como had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Como and 1.17 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Como vs Genoa?

Como 1-0 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Como vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Como win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Como 45%, draw 29%, Genoa 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Como), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Como) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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