Fiorentina vs Empoli Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fiorentina v Empoli — Team-Based Signals
Fiorentina vs Empoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Empoli
İTA
1-1
HT 0-1
Empoli
İTA
0-0
HT 0-0
Fiorentina
İTA
Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli — Actual Match Statistics
Fiorentina nicked a narrow win over Empoli 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Fiorentina had 53% of the ball to Empoli's 47%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 0.81 to 0.38.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Empoli.
What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 46%, draw 28%, Empoli 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.