Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.6
Over
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.49
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
22%
4.58
6+
8%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.87
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
19%
4.55
X/2
10%
7.51
X/X
15%
4.0
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
10%
6.2
2/X
7%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.49/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.33
-4% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.5 Crosses 18.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Empoli
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.26 xG 0.86
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
427 Passes 218
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Box Touches 9
30 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTK
29.09.2024 Empoli Empoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
18.02.2024 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
23.10.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
19.02.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
21.08.2022 Empoli Empoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-1
AWAY Empoli
0.81 xG 0.38
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 6
315 Passes 246
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
13 Box Touches 11
6 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina nicked a narrow win over Empoli 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fiorentina had 53% of the ball to Empoli's 47%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 0.81 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Empoli?

Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 46%, draw 28%, Empoli 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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