Venezia 0-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
52%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.15
Over
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No Pick
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.11
2-3
40%
1.87
4-5
22%
2.97
6+
12%
9.06
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.11 — our 26% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.74
1/2
9%
21.2
1/X
8%
15.95
X/1
10%
10.2
X/2
13%
4.33
X/X
8%
5.9
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
30%
2.09
2/X
6%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.3pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
52%
Away Win
56%
-4.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezia EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 61%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -4%
1.26/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.07
-13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -24%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
279 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
15.4 Crosses 17.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venezia
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Milan
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.80
0.53 xG 2.46
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
278 Passes 547
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
9 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.09.2024 Milan Milan 4-0 HT 4-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
09.01.2022 Venezia Venezia 0-3 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.09.2021 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
24.02.2002 Venezia Venezia 1-4 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
14.10.2001 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venezia
0-2
AWAY Milan
1.22 xG 1.61
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
345 Passes 350
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Venezia vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan saw off Venezia 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Venezia had 50% of the ball to Milan's 50%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.22 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Venezia and 2.80 for Milan.

What was the final score of Venezia vs Milan?

Venezia 0-2 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezia vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Venezia 26%, draw 22%, Milan 52%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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