Inter 0-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Apr 2025

Inter
0-1 HT 0-1
Roma
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
2.0
Over
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.72
2-3
41%
1.82
4-5
21%
3.16
6+
11%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.72 — our 27% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.33
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
11%
4.53
X/2
11%
9.11
X/X
17%
5.25
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
9%
6.86
2/X
6%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+4.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.9pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -21%
2.00/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.72
+27% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.8 Crosses 15.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Roma
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.31 xG 0.72
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
425 Passes 386
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.10.2024 Roma Roma 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
10.02.2024 Roma Roma 2-4 HT 2-1 Inter Inter İTA
29.10.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
06.05.2023 Roma Roma 0-2 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
01.10.2022 Inter Inter 1-2 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
23.04.2022 Inter Inter 3-1 HT 2-0 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter
0-1
AWAY Roma
1.08 xG 1.93
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
546 Passes 214
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 24
33 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Inter vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma edged past Inter 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Inter at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Inter had 69% of the ball to Roma's 31%, shots finished 17-19, expected goals 1.08 to 1.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Inter and 0.83 for Roma.

What was the final score of Inter vs Roma?

Inter 0-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Inter 44%, draw 28%, Roma 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Inter), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Inter) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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