AGF Aarhus 1-3 Kopenhag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
4.02
6+ Goals
11%
18.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.2
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
6%
14.5
X/1
15%
6.84
X/2
10%
4.77
X/X
12%
4.57
2/1
9%
35.0
2/2
19%
3.0
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
29%
+8.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-8.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Kopenhag EU Bookmakers 48%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +13%
1.50/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.38
-11% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +12%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
261 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 80%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
22.4 Crosses 14.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kopenhag
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.60 xG 1.79
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
346 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 30
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.04.2025 Kopenhag Kopenhag 3-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
10.11.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-1 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
28.07.2024 Kopenhag Kopenhag 3-2 HT 1-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
21.05.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-2 HT 3-1 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
28.04.2024 Kopenhag Kopenhag 3-2 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
03.12.2023 Kopenhag Kopenhag 1-2 HT 0-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Kopenhag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kopenhag got the better of AGF Aarhus 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Kopenhag found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kopenhag led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for AGF Aarhus and 2.17 for Kopenhag.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Kopenhag?

AGF Aarhus 1-3 Kopenhag in the Denmark - Süperlig on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Kopenhag?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 38%, draw 26%, Kopenhag 36%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Under 2.5
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