Osijek 2-0 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.85
No
61%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.85
6+ Goals
8%
17.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 35% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+4.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
50%
-10.5pp
61%
BTTS No
50%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 52%
+13% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.04/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.15
-22% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -4%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
243 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 81%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
20.7 Crosses 18.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.95 xG 1.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
286 Passes 296
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 4-0 HT 3-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
24.11.2024 Osijek Osijek 2-2 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
31.08.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
14.04.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-2 HT 1-2 Osijek Osijek HIR
03.02.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
08.11.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
2-0
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.29 xG 1.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
302 Passes 312
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
35 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek beat Hajduk Split 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Osijek had 51% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 49%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.29 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Osijek and 1.67 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Hajduk Split?

Osijek 2-0 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Osijek 30%, draw 26%, Hajduk Split 44%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hajduk Split) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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