RFC Liege 1-2 Lommel United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2026

📅27/04/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.98
1/2
6%
23.1
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
13%
6.28
X/2
10%
5.43
X/X
11%
5.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
26.5
2/2
22%
3.18
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 6% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+5.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.5pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-3.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.3pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RFC Liege EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Lommel United EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.78/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.31
-18% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
24.8 Crosses 16.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RFC Liege
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Lommel United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.95 xG 1.32
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
279 Passes 512
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.04.2026 Lommel United Lommel United 3-0 HT 2-0 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
27.01.2026 RFC Liege RFC Liege 1-0 HT 0-0 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
28.09.2025 Lommel United Lommel United 0-1 HT 0-1 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
26.01.2025 Lommel United Lommel United 0-2 HT 0-2 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
04.10.2024 RFC Liege RFC Liege 1-1 HT 1-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
02.03.2024 Lommel United Lommel United 4-1 HT 1-0 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RFC Liege
1-2
AWAY Lommel United
1.57 xG 1.29
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 4
516 Passes 204
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
36 Box Touches 18
53 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RFC Liege vs Lommel United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lommel United edged past RFC Liege 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 22% / 37% — and on the day Lommel United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, RFC Liege had 68% of the ball to Lommel United's 32%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.57 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RFC Liege had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for RFC Liege and 1.33 for Lommel United.

What was the final score of RFC Liege vs Lommel United?

RFC Liege 1-2 Lommel United in the Belgium - 1st Division on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RFC Liege vs Lommel United?

Before kick-off our model rated a RFC Liege win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split RFC Liege 40%, draw 22%, Lommel United 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RFC Liege) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RFC Liege) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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