Montevideo Wanderers 1-0 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 27 Apr 2026

📅27/04/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
4.65
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
60%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.68
Over 2.5
49%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
30%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
19%
-1.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
59%
Away Win
56%
+3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.6pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 60%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +15%
0.87/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.70
-6% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
237 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
1W-0D-5L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 2-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
22.06.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 2-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
20.04.2025 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 1-2 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.11.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-2 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.06.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
12.05.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
1-0
AWAY CA Penarol
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Montevideo Wanderers vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montevideo Wanderers edged past CA Penarol 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. CA Penarol carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Montevideo Wanderers had 35% of the ball to CA Penarol's 65%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Montevideo Wanderers and 1.67 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Montevideo Wanderers vs CA Penarol?

Montevideo Wanderers 1-0 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montevideo Wanderers vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Montevideo Wanderers 17%, draw 23%, CA Penarol 59%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (CA Penarol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5
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