Domzale 1-2 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
44%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
2.88
6+ Goals
10%
8.54
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 29% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
22%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+6.7pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.3pp
44%
Away Win
57%
-13.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Domzale EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 61%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -19%
1.16/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.05
+11% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -12%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Domzale
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Maribor
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Domzale Domzale 1-0 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
01.02.2025 Maribor Maribor 2-1 HT 2-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
29.09.2024 Domzale Domzale 0-3 HT 0-2 Maribor Maribor SLVN
21.07.2024 Maribor Maribor 4-1 HT 2-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
27.04.2024 Domzale Domzale 1-1 HT 0-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
02.03.2024 Maribor Maribor 3-0 HT 2-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Domzale
1-2
AWAY Maribor
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Domzale vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor nicked a narrow win over Domzale 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Domzale had 51% of the ball to Maribor's 49%, shots finished 12-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Domzale and 2.17 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Domzale vs Maribor?

Domzale 1-2 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Domzale vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Domzale 28%, draw 28%, Maribor 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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