Palmeiras 1-2 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Jul 2026

📅27/07/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.03
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
15.0
X/1
23%
3.98
X/2
6%
11.0
X/X
9%
4.62
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
7%
9.66
2/X
8%
17.3
Value flag · 1/X at 15.0 — our 9% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
58%
-2.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.7pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -10%
1.75/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.39
+4% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 79%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
24.0 Crosses 13.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.95 xG 0.75
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
286 Passes 323
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.01.2026 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
04.12.2025 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-3 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
20.07.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
29.09.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
18.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-4 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
20.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
1-2
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.79 xG 1.93
22 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 5
593 Passes 218
32 Box Touches 17
33 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro nicked a narrow win over Palmeiras 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Palmeiras carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 1.79 to 1.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Palmeiras and 1.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro?

Palmeiras 1-2 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 56%, draw 26%, Atletico Mineiro 18%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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