Flamengo 1-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Jul 2026

📅27/07/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.45
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
12.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.77
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
17.25
X/1
18%
3.79
X/2
5%
13.05
X/X
8%
5.78
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.1
2/2
10%
11.35
2/X
6%
19.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
64%
-3.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.9pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.0pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 18%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.74/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.71
-4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
417 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 78%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
20.5 Crosses 15.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 0.79
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
401 Passes 365
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.01.2026 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
06.11.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
12.07.2025 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
19.01.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo HAZ
04.08.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
18.04.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.98 xG 0.57
18 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
427 Passes 354
27 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo and Sao Paulo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Flamengo at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.98 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Flamengo and 1.00 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

Flamengo 1-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 61%, draw 20%, Sao Paulo 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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