Sao Paulo 2-1 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Jan 2026

📅29/01/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.32
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.45
Over 2.5
43%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
6.0
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
6.05
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.0
X/1
10%
6.88
X/2
13%
4.5
X/X
18%
3.52
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
25%
3.18
2/X
8%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
26%
-1.1pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.5pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+0.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
65%
-8.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
35%
+8.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.7pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.18/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.28
-17% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 83%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
16.5 Crosses 16.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Flamengo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.74 xG 1.02
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
373 Passes 403
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
12.07.2025 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
19.01.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo HAZ
04.08.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
18.04.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
07.12.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-1
AWAY Flamengo
0.78 xG 2.40
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
304 Passes 468
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 21
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo squeezed past Flamengo 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Flamengo at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 41% of the ball to Flamengo's 59%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.78 to 2.40 — the balance of chances actually favoured Flamengo.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.00 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?

Sao Paulo 2-1 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 25%, draw 31%, Flamengo 44%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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