Gremio 1-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Jul 2026

📅27/07/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 30% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.1
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
9%
6.76
X/2
16%
4.86
X/X
13%
4.16
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
17%
3.05
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+2.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 46%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -22%
1.12/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.20
-23% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -40%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
263 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 84%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
17.5 Crosses 16.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fluminense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.99 xG 1.58
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 Passes 409
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.01.2026 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
03.12.2025 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
03.08.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
02.11.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
21.08.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio LKU
14.08.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.28 xG 1.07
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
406 Passes 416
18 Box Touches 9
31 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio and Fluminense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Fluminense at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.28 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gremio and 1.67 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Fluminense?

Gremio 1-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gremio 32%, draw 27%, Fluminense 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fluminense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5
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