Salernitana 3-2 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Aug 2024

📅27/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 30% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.55
1/2
9%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
19%
5.19
X/2
11%
5.78
X/X
11%
4.24
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
11%
4.13
2/X
10%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.7pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +16%
1.35/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.53
+25% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.7 Crosses 15.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sampdoria
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.05 xG 0.81
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 Passes 364
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.10.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 4-0 HT 2-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTK
05.03.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
28.08.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 4-0 HT 2-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
16.04.2022 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-2 HT 1-2 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
21.11.2021 Salernitana Salernitana 0-2 HT 0-2 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
27.10.2020 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
3-2
AWAY Sampdoria
1.37 xG 2.27
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
416 Passes 250
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salernitana edged past Sampdoria 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Salernitana as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Salernitana had 59% of the ball to Sampdoria's 41%, shots finished 24-12, expected goals 1.37 to 2.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sampdoria.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salernitana had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Salernitana and 0.67 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Sampdoria?

Salernitana 3-2 Sampdoria in the Italy - Serie B on 27/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salernitana win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 41%, draw 28%, Sampdoria 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salernitana) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Salernitana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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