Monza 0-1 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.35
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.75
6+ Goals
9%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.46
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.05
X/1
18%
4.07
X/2
8%
8.66
X/X
13%
4.03
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
11%
7.71
2/X
8%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.7pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 24%
+5% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.54/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.43
-6% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.9 Crosses 17.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
0-1
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.41 xG 0.84
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
477 Passes 277
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 10
37 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monza vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio edged past Monza 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Monza at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Monza had 62% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 38%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.41 to 0.84 — on chances, Monza could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Monza vs Padova Calcio?

Monza 0-1 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie B on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Monza 49%, draw 27%, Padova Calcio 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Monza) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
27 Sep 2025
16:00 Mantova vs Frosinone Analysis →
16:00 Cesena vs Palermo Analysis →
16:00 Avellino vs Virtus Entella Analysis →
16:00 Südtirol vs Reggiana Analysis →
16:00 Venezia vs Spezia Analysis →
20:30 FC Bari 1908 vs Sampdoria Analysis →