Mantova 1-5 Frosinone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 32% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.48
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
9%
6.31
X/2
9%
5.3
X/X
18%
4.16
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
25%
3.43
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.9pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+1.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.3pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Frosinone EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.11/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.09
+19% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
12.8 Crosses 17.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Frosinone
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.74 xG 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
370 Passes 290
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 4
01.03.2025 Frosinone Frosinone 2-1 HT 2-1 Mantova Mantova İTB
21.12.2024 Mantova Mantova 3-1 HT 3-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
23.01.2010 Mantova Mantova 3-1 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
29.08.2009 Frosinone Frosinone 1-0 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
24.01.2009 Frosinone Frosinone 1-2 HT 1-1 Mantova Mantova İTB
30.08.2008 Mantova Mantova 2-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
1-5
AWAY Frosinone
3.81 xG 3.34
69% Ball Possession 31%
28 Total Shots 22
9 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 4
466 Passes 184
92% Pass Accuracy 81%
36 Box Touches 35
26 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Frosinone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone cruised past Mantova 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-4. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 30% / 30% / 40% — and on the day Frosinone made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mantova had 69% of the ball to Frosinone's 31%, shots finished 28-22, expected goals 3.81 to 3.34 — the balance of chances actually favoured Mantova.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mantova had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mantova and 1.00 for Frosinone.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Frosinone?

Mantova 1-5 Frosinone in the Italy - Serie B on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Frosinone?

Before kick-off our model rated an Frosinone win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mantova 30%, draw 30%, Frosinone 40%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Frosinone) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Frosinone) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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