Caldas 1-1 Dezembro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.0pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Dezembro EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
0.76/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.74
-42% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Dezembro
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 Dezembro Dezembro 0-1 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
18.02.2024 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 1-0 Dezembro Dezembro POR3
11.11.2023 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Dezembro Dezembro POR3
13.08.2023 Dezembro Dezembro 3-2 HT 1-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-1
AWAY Dezembro
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Dezembro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas and Dezembro couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Caldas at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Caldas had 41% of the ball to Dezembro's 59%, shots finished 5-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Caldas had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Caldas and 1.25 for Dezembro.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Dezembro?

Caldas 1-1 Dezembro in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Dezembro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Caldas 42%, draw 25%, Dezembro 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Caldas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5
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