Panathinaikos 1-1 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.74
Over 2.5
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.94
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.96
6+ Goals
9%
18.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 29% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.8
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
14%
7.3
X/X
14%
4.26
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
8%
5.59
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+6.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-6.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.9pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
1.17/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.86
+9% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +44%
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 73%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.4 Crosses 14.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panathinaikos
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.49 xG 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
400 Passes 299
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.05.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
28.04.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 0-1 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
07.04.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-2 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
28.02.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
26.11.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-0 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
14.05.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-1 HT 1-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
1-1
AWAY Aris Saloniki
1.31 xG 0.66
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
450 Passes 294
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panathinaikos and Aris Saloniki couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Panathinaikos at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 59% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 41%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.31 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Panathinaikos had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Panathinaikos and 0.67 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki?

Panathinaikos 1-1 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Super League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 44%, draw 27%, Aris Saloniki 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Panathinaikos), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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