Vitoria Guimaraes II 3-0 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.6
Over 2.5
50%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
59%
-8.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
41%
+8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 34%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -2%
0.91/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.15
-29% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
254 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Varzim
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
11.01.2026 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 1-2 HT 0-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
04.10.2025 Varzim Varzim 1-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
19.02.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 2-1 HT 0-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
04.11.2022 Varzim Varzim 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
14.07.2018 Varzim Varzim 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II HAZ
20.09.2015 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II
3-0
AWAY Varzim
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes II cruised past Varzim 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes II as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes II had 59% of the ball to Varzim's 41%, shots finished 18-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Varzim led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes II and 1.17 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Varzim?

Vitoria Guimaraes II 3-0 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes II win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes II 43%, draw 25%, Varzim 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes II) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes II) ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
28 Feb 2026
18:00 Atletico CP vs Sporting Covilha Analysis →
18:00 Dezembro vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Analysis →
19:00 Caldas vs Amora FC Analysis →
20:00 Academica vs Uniao Santarem Analysis →