Atletico CP 1-2 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.71
Over 2.5
52%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.09
No
49%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
58%
+1.1pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.5pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
55%
-6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
45%
+6.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.5pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico CP EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +22%
1.22/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.06
-26% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +39%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico CP
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.01.2026 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico CP Atletico CP POR3
26.10.2025 Atletico CP Atletico CP 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
12.01.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-3 HT 1-2 Atletico CP Atletico CP POR3
29.09.2024 Atletico CP Atletico CP 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
28.04.2024 Atletico CP Atletico CP 1-2 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
02.03.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico CP Atletico CP POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico CP
1-2
AWAY Sporting Covilha
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Atletico CP vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha nicked a narrow win over Atletico CP 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Atletico CP at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atletico CP had 60% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 40%, shots finished 16-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico CP had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico CP and 0.83 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Atletico CP vs Sporting Covilha?

Atletico CP 1-2 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico CP vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico CP win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atletico CP 59%, draw 21%, Sporting Covilha 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico CP) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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